Predicated on one of my favorite quotations, variously attributed to Dennis Gabor, Buckminster Fuller (who gets credit for any quote of truly dubious origins, it seems), or perhaps most credibly, since I found it on the Internet, to a Tweet by Abraham Lincoln: the best way to predict the future is to create it.
My mission at the conference, as stipulated by Dr. O’Donnell, was to answer this question he posed: what’s next for health promotion?
The question seemed to invite a prediction, and in that context, my response was: I have no idea. My tea-leaf-literacy is no better than anyone else’s; and, predictably, I can’t seem to find my crystal ball.
But, I thought, there is another context for the question, predicated on one of my favorite quotations, variously attributed to Dennis Gabor, Buckminster Fuller (who gets credit for any quote of truly dubious origins, it seems), or perhaps most credibly, since I found it on the Internet, to a Tweet by Abraham Lincoln: the best way to predict the future is to create it.
Ah, that changes things. Because I do know what I would like to create next for health promotion: the actual promotion of health. What a novelty that would be.
We have known for more than 20 years virtually all we need to reduce prevailing rates of major chronic diseases- heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, dementia, and so on- by as much as 80%. We have learned ever more about it with each passing year, but for the most part, the aggregation of evidence has changed little; serving, instead, to reaffirm what we already knew and append an exclamation mark. And Dan Buettner’s work has iced this well-baked cake with the evidence that what we thought we knew about lifestyle as medicine works exactly as hoped, and predicted, at the level of entire populations- not in the context of randomized trials, but living in the real world.
We could, simply by using what we have long known, add years to lives and life to years, all around the globe. We could, if we chose to turn what we know into what we do, bequeath to our children a future in which dreadful chronic diseases simply don’t happen eight times out of ten.
I am choosing to predict that future, because I have children, whom I predict will in turn have children. I am choosing to predict that future, because I am committing myself fully to help create it.
The effort is called the GLiMMER Initiative. There are many elements to the project, but the first step is the demonstration that there is a massive, global consensus among experts regarding the fundamentals of health-promoting living, including eating. Despite the endless parade of fad diet books; despite the constantly shifting preoccupations with gluten, GMO, meat, wheat, fats and carbs- there is a massive, overlooked consensus about what matters most.
I know this in part from doing my job, and studying the relevant evidence. But I know it from a rather intimate perspective as well. Working in preventive medicine for some 25 years now, I have come to know my highly regarded colleagues around the world. In instances too numerous to recall, I have shared a meal with them.
And we all eat more like one another than any of us eats like the ‘typical’ American. From vegan to Paleo, fat-focused to carb-conscious, the world’s experts eatwholesome foods in sensible combinations. They use common knowledge of fundamentals to care for themselves, and their own families. Meanwhile, the public- hearing only ever of the disagreements that serve to generate morning show segments, new varieties of camouflaged junk food, and the next great dietary fad– is left to languish in the misguided belief that the experts don’t agree.
I’ve heard it countless times. No two experts in nutrition agree about anything. Expert opinion in nutrition changes every 20 minutes.
It’s just not true, and I have proof. A global coalition of over 120 experts (and counting) from more than 16 countries has pledged public support for the same, fundamental principles of healthy eating and living.
More remarkable than the accomplishments and celebrity of those on this council is their diversity. There are, as predicted, devotees of a vegan diet, a Mediterranean diet, and a Paleo diet- willing to endorse the same fundamentals. Yes, they differ, too; but they (we) all have more uniting than dividing us. We agree more than we disagree. The council members are not endorsing one another. In some cases, they may not even like one another. But we have come together just the same- because we all know what’s what.
And what we agree about is all we need to slash rates of chronic disease. What we agree about and have long known is all we need to add years to lives, add life to years, and bequeath to our children a vastly better medical destiny- and life.
So, despite my want of crystal ball or decipherable tea leaves, I predict that the future of health promotion involves the genuine promotion of health. I predict a culture that collectively rolls its eyes when the next fad diet book comes out, because nobody is buying. I predict a culture committed to using what it knows about disease prevention, because every child and parent, every grandparent and friend, recognizes they’ve got precious skin in the game. I predict that we will figure out how to reconcile legitimate academic debate and the relentless pursuit of what we don’t know, with the reliable use of what we do.
I predict it, because we are striving to create it.
These reflections come at a propitious time. Today is Easter, and Passover- celebrations of rebirth, and renewal. My predictions are thus fortified, and my hopes, resurrected.
Besides, anything is possible. Abraham Lincoln said so on his Facebook page.
-fin
David L. Katz, MD, MPH, FACPM, FACP
Director, Yale University Prevention Research Center; Griffin Hospital
President, American College of Lifestyle Medicine
Editor-in-Chief, Childhood Obesity
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Author: Disease Proof
