Jeffrey: On millimorts and microlives…

Very good, very interesting piece on risk measurement and reporting…

http://www.jeffreybraithwaite.com/new-blog/2014/11/20/youll-be-dying-to-hear-about-this

You’ll be dying to hear about this

There’s lots of death in the world. Transport is risky, for instance—planes, automobiles, trains and ships can crash, maiming or killing passengers. You don’t have to go much further than seeing the road toll, or hearing about Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 shot down over the Ukraine, or watching the TV scenes of the Costa Concordia, run aground just off Isola del Giglio near the coast of Italy, to appreciate that death is never far away.

Then there’s infectious diseases. You can all-too-readily catch a cold, or the flu, or TB, or lately, the Ebola virus. And there seem to be never-ending wars and skirmishes in the Middle East; and terror, spread by fundamentalists.

Each of these, depending on fate, can hasten someone’s demise. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong circumstances.

Lifestyle issues can cause problems for your risk profile too—but these are slower, and more stealthy. Think of smoking, drinking too much, eating yourself into a coma or just gross obesity, or the more insidious dangers of sitting at a computer for years on end with little exercise. These can translate over time into heart or lung disease, diabetes, and cancer.

Whether you are active or passive, things you do or don’t do can shorten your lifespan, or kill you a little or a lot faster than you would otherwise last. So what levels of risk do you actually, quantitatively, face in your own life?

*****

Stanford University decision scientist Ron Howard in the 1970s presented a novel way to calculate this risk. He introduced the idea of the micromort, defined as a one-in-a-million likelihood of death.  This is such an evocative unit of measurement that it deserves a little further attention.

If you live in the US or another relatively rich, OECD-style country, with good law and order, legislation that keeps society relatively risk free (such as with environmental and public health issues sorted out, effective building codes, and so forth), a well-educated population, access to health care, and a buoyant GDP, you can expect a micromort of one on any particular day. Another way of saying this is that’s the standard expected death rate for any individual today in any one 24 hour period: a microprobability of one in a million is your index of baseline risk.

These are great odds for you, today, as you read this; you are very likely to get through it. Congratulations if you do.

What circumstances lead to an elevated risk? Say if you do dangerous things or even just live life to the full? How does your micromort level get upgraded?

In the United States, you accumulate an extra 16 micromorts each time you ride a motorcycle 100 miles, for instance. Or 0.7 micromorts are added for each day you go skiing; so go for a week and you’ve added five more.

Or you might decide to do something a little more strenuous. With hangliding, the additional risk of dying equates to eight micromorts per flight; or skydiving, nine per freefall.

They are relatively benign compared to moving up to base-jumping. Do so, and you rapidly earn many more risk points: 430 micromorts per jump, in fact.

Marathon running, anyone? That will be seven micromorts to your debit account for each run. Even walking 17 miles adds one micromort, as does a 230 mile car trip, and add another one for every 6,000 mile train trip. But the puzzle is, it’s not always clear how to treat these: the walking introduces an element of risk (you could be out and about and get run over, or be struck by lightning) but it’s also beneficial (it contributes to improved health).

Perhaps even more interesting, there are microprobabilities associated with accumulated chronic risks in contrast to these other single-shot event risks. These are lifestyle choices and behaviors that incrementally add a little more risk through exposure. They won’t kill you if you have bad luck on a given day, but will slowly have an effect—and may claim you in the end.

Every half a liter of wine exposes you to a micromort because it can accrue into cirrhosis of the liver. Each one and a half cigarettes does the same, but the menace here is cancer or heart disease. Even eating 100 char-broiled steaks, 40 tablespoons of peanut butter or 1,000 bananas sneaks up on you in the form, respectively, of cancer risk from benzopyrene, liver cancer risk from aflatoxin B or cancer risk from radioactive potassium-40.

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Hang on though. I doubt I’ve done much to help anyone.

Because a clear problem is that people aren’t very good at doing these kinds of statistics, or applying them to their own lives—and are even less capable of acting on them. We can readily appreciate that skiing or motorcycling add some risk for the time you are doing them compared to the everyday activities of being at work or hanging out at home, yet many people are undeterred. People even cheerfully find ways of taking on more risk, such as by climbing Everest, driving fast cars, or having unsafe sex.

Everyone knows about that steadily accumulated risk, too: not too many of us are blind to the fact that drinking too much alcohol can lead to liver disease or smoking to lung cancer over time. And although both have been falling for decades, this hasn’t stopped millions of people indulging. There’s 42.1 million US smokers at last count, or 18.1% of the population, and on average each adult US citizen consumes 8.6 liters of alcohol annually.

This is not the best performance internationally but is by no means high by international standards, and Eastern Europeans smoke more heavily, and really give hard booze like vodka a nudge.  Nevertheless, both activities contribute to what public health people quaintly call excess deaths and the rest of us know by “their drinking or smoking (or both) killed them eventually.”

But what does it actually mean that you expose yourself to increased risk if you go out walking regularly or eat bananas?  We need another way of looking at this, because it’s too hard to do the sums.

*****

Enter the University of Cambridge medical statistician David Spiegelhalter and his colleague Alejandro Leiva who invented the idea of a microlife. This is another unit of risk which has the calculation built in for you. It is half an hour of your life.

If you increase your risk by one micromort, then this shortens your life by half an hour. These calculations apply to people on average, and work out for entire populations, but any one of us might be lucky or unlucky, depending on our individual characteristics. Any particular risk doesn’t convert exactly to the specific individual. But with enough people in the US (beyond 316 million now) and on the planet (7 billion and rising), there’s a relentlessness accuracy about the statistics.

So now let’s do some life expectancy math with Spiegelhalter. Smoke a pack a day? You lose up to five hours a day. Accumulated, that’s up to eight years off your life. Have six drinks a day and that binge costs you one half hour allocation—a shortened life by ten months or so. Stay eleven pounds overweight and you sacrifice half an hour every day you do so (another ten months across your lifespan), as you do if you watch TV for two hours. Your coffee habit at 2-3 cups daily takes away another half hour lot. So does every portion of red meat each day. Another ten months each time.

It’s not all negative. There’s good news. Eat five serves of fruit and vegetables every day and you gain up to a couple of hours each time. You get three years back. Exercise and the first 20 minutes per day earns you a surprising hour (there’s a good investment—a year and a half), and each subsequent 40 minutes adds up to one more half hour bonus to your credit (a bit more work but that seems a pretty good deal, too, to get a ten month return).

If you have a hobby, activity or diet and it’s not been dealt with so far, you can fill in some of the gaps with some good guesstimates. Do you have passive pursuits, akin to watching TV? This is a net deficit. Do you do active, exercise-oriented activities, such as weekly amateur netball, soccer, bowling or basketball—or just walking regularly? Add some lifespan.

These half hour allocations alter somewhat depending on your genetics of course (you can have lucky or unlucky genes) or your socioeconomic status (wealthy people typically live longer than poorer folks) or your gender (women on the whole live longer than men). That said, with this idea you are now able to alter your risk profile by changing your behavior with a tangible, calculable return.

*****

There’s a punchline to this, and it may be already occurring to you as you reflect on your own lifestyle and lifespan. There are a million microlives in fifty seven years of existence. That, for many of us, is roughly the adult allocation.

Let’s call that your life expectancy baseline. We can assume that you have had a reasonably healthy childhood (not so for everyone, of course, but true for many US children, and true for most readers). Then, from that point on, a large part of your healthy adult life is now measureable.

So: come out of your teens, reach your 21st birthday, and as the “jolly good fellow” and “happy birthday to you” songs subside, imagine you then have 57 years to go. That is, you have an allocation of 78 years in total, maybe a little longer, maybe a little shorter.

Yes, all sorts of unexpected things might happen along the way, but to some degree your lifespan is now no longer vague, but quantifiable. The actual life expectancy in the US indeed hovers around this: it’s 79.8 years overall, 77.4 for males and 82.2 for females. (It’s higher in some northern European countries and Japan, but that’s a story for another day).

However, you might be reading this thinking: Yikes. I’m not 21: I’m a bit older than that. In this case, you’ve already used up a proportion of your time left. Console yourself. At least you got through the riskiest stage of all: being a baby, up to one year of age, and childhood, up to six or so, when many things can go wrong.

But have you used what you were given so far, well? Or do you have a fair bit of regret?

To make an obvious point, however, this isn’t Doctor Who. You don’t have a Tardis to go back in time and fix the past. So stop any lamentations. Look forward.

By now, if you’ve come to value more readily each half hour and especially the cumulative effect of your lifestyle choices to date, don’t listen to me preaching. Feel completely empowered. You know what to do and how to alter your own numbers.

Now, all that’s left is to do the math. You’ll have a much clearer picture of your life and potential death than ever before. It’s your move: what’s next?

Further reading

Blastland, Michael and Spiegelhalter, David (2014). The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death. New York: Basic Books.

Howard, Ronald (1984). On fates comparable to death. Management Science 30 (4): 407–422.

Spiegelhalter, David (2012). Using speed of ageing and “microlives” to communicate the effects of lifetime habits and environment. British Medical Journal 345: e8223.

Spiegelhalter, David (2014). The power of the MicroMort. BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology 121 (6): 662–663.

OSCAR: THE $1.5B STARTUP MAKING HEALTH INSURANCE SUCK LESS

Overview of a disruptive new entrant to the health insurance sector, fully consolidating the service and value chain with technology.

http://www.wired.com/2015/04/oscar-funding/

THIS $1.5B STARTUP IS MAKING HEALTH INSURANCE SUCK LESS

SciAm smashing Ornish

Article referred to me by Mauricio Flores at P4Mi. Still think it is a precious position, yet more argument vs discussion. Who is right vs what is right.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-almost-everything-dean-ornish-says-about-nutrition-is-wrong/

Why Almost Everything Dean Ornish Says about Nutrition Is Wrong

When it comes to good eating habits, protein and fat are not your dietary enemies

There’s little evidence to suggest that we need to avoid protein and fat.
Credit: TheBusyBrain/Flickr

More on this Topic

Last month, an op–ed in The New York Times argued that high-protein and high-fat diets are to blame for America’s ever-growing waistline and incidence of chronic disease. The author, Dean Ornish, founder of the nonprofit Preventive Medicine Research Institute, is no newcomer to these nutrition debates. For 37 years he has been touting the benefits of very low-fat, high-carbohydrate, vegetarian diets for preventing and reversing heart disease. But the research he cites to back up his op–ed claims is tenuous at best. Nutrition is complex but there is little evidence our country’s worsening metabolic ills are the fault of protein or fat. If anything, our attempts to eat less fat in recent decades have made things worse.Ornish begins his piece with a misleading statistic. Despite being told to eat less fat, he says, Americans have been doing the opposite: They have “actually consumed 67 percent more added fat, 39 percent more sugar and 41 percent more meat in 2000 than they had in 1950 and 24.5 percent more calories than they had in 1970.” Yes, Americans have been eating more fat, sugar and meat, but we have also been eating more vegetables and fruits (pdf)—because we have been eating more of everything.

What’s more relevant to the discussion is this fact: During the time in which the prevalence of obesity in the U.S. nearly tripled, the percentage of calories Americans consumed from protein and fat actually dropped whereas the percentage of calories Americans ingested from carbohydrates—one of the nutrient groups Ornish says we should eat more of—increased. Could it be that our attempts to reduce fat have in fact been part of the problem? Some scientists think so. “I believe the low-fat message promoted the obesity epidemic,” says Lyn Steffen, a nutritional epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health. That’s in part because when we cut out fat, we began eating foods that were worse for us.

Ornish goes to argue that protein and saturated fat increase the risk of mortality and chronic disease. As evidence for these causal claims, he cites a handful of observational studies. He should know better. These types of studies—which might report that people who eat a lot of animal protein tend to develop higher rates of disease—“only look at association, not causation,” explains Christopher Gardner, a nutrition scientist at the Stanford Prevention Research Center. They should not be used to make claims about cause and effect; doing so is considered by nutrition scientists to be “inappropriate” and “misleading.” The reason: People who eat a lot of animal protein often make other lifestyle choices that increase their disease risk, and although researchers try to make statistical adjustments to control for these “confounding variables,” as they’re called, it’s a very imperfect science. Other large observational studies have found that diets high in fat and protein are not associated with disease and may even protect against it. The point is, it’s possible to cherry-pick observational studies to support almost any nutritional argument.

Randomized controlled clinical trials, although certainly not perfect, are better tools for chipping away at causality, and they suggest that protein and fat don’t deserve to be demonized. In a 2007 clinical trial led by Gardner researchers randomly assigned 311 individuals to four groups: One group was assigned the high-fat, high-protein and low-carbohydrate Atkins diet; the second was assigned Ornish’s very low-fat vegetarian diet, which requires consuming fewer than 10 percent of calories from fat; the third was assigned the Zone diet, which aims for a 40/30/30 percent distribution of carbohydrate, protein and fat; and the fourth was assigned the high-carbohydrate, low–saturated fat LEARN (for: lifestyle, exercise, attitudes, relationships, nutrition) diet. The participants all had trouble adhering to their regimens, but all lost about the same statistically significant amounts of weight, and when compared head to head, the Atkins dieters saw greater improvements in blood pressure and HDL cholesterol than the Ornish dieters did.

The recent multicenter PREDIMED trial also supports the notion that fat can be good rather than bad. It found that individuals assigned to eat high-fat (41 percent calories from fat), Mediterranean-style diets for nearly five years were about 30 percent less likely to experience serious heart-related problems compared with individuals who were told to avoid fat. (All groups consumed about the same amount of protein.) Protein, too, doesn’t look so evil when one considers the 2010 trial published in The New England Journal of Medicine that found individuals who had recently lost weight were more likely to keep it off if they ate more protein, along with the 2005 OmniHeart trial that reported individuals who substituted either protein or monounsaturated fat for some of their carbohydrates reduced their cardiovascular risk factors compared with individuals who did not.

The other problem with Ornish’s antiprotein stance is that he lumps all animal proteins together. For instance, he wrote that animal proteins have been associated with higher disease and mortality risks in observational studies. But “Ornish is conflating hot dogs and pepperoni with fresh, unprocessed meats,” says Lydia Bazzano, professor of nutrition and epidemiology at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, “and there’s a big difference between them.” A 2010 systematic review and meta-analysis of 20 studies found consumption of processed meat was associated with an increased risk of diabetes and heart disease but eating unprocessed red meat was not. A 2014 meta-analysis similarly reported much higher mortality risks associated with processed meat compared with red meat consumption and found no problems associated with white meat. The March 2014 study that Ornish cites as finding “a 75 percent increase in premature deaths from all causes and a 400 percent increase in deaths from cancer and type 2 diabetes among heavy consumers of animal protein under the age of 65,” also did not distinguish between types of animal protein. And it is worth noting that among people in the study over 65, heavy consumption of animal protein actually protected against cancer and mortality. (Also: the heavy protein consumers in the study were consuming nearly 30 percent more protein than the average American does.) “Whole foods—such as whole grain products and fruits and veggies—are healthy, but I think that dairy products, fish and lean cuts of meat or poultry can also be part of a healthy diet,” Steffen says.

So there’s little evidence to suggest that we need to avoid protein and fat. But what about the claims Ornish makes about the success of his own diet—do they hold up to scrutiny? Not exactly. His famous 1990 Lifestyle Heart trial involved a total of 48 patients with heart disease. Twenty-eight were assigned to his low-fat, plant-based diet and 20 were given usual cardiac care. After one year those following his diet were more likely to see a regression in their atherosclerosis.

But here’s the thing: The patients who followed his diet also quit smoking, started exercising and attended stress management training. The people in the control group were told to do none of these things. It’s hardly surprising that quitting smoking, exercising, reducing stress and dieting—when done together—improves heart health. But fact that the participants were making all of these lifestyle changes means that we cannot make any inferences about the effect of the diet alone.

So when Ornish wrote in his op–ed that “for reversing disease, a whole-foods, plant-based diet seems to be necessary,” he is incorrect. It’s possible that quitting smoking, exercising and stress management, without the dieting, would have had the same effect—but we don’t know; it’s also possible that his diet alone would not reverse heart disease symptoms. Again, we don’t know because his studies have not been designed in a way that can tell us anything about the effect of his diet alone. There’s also another issue to consider: Although Ornish emphasizes that his diet is low in fat and animal protein, it also eliminates refined carbohydrates. If his diet works—and again, we don’t know for sure that it does—is that because it reduces protein or fat or refined carbohydrates?

The point here is not that Ornish’s diet—a low-fat, whole food, plant-based approach—is necessarily bad. It’s almost certainly healthier than the highly processed, refined-carbohydrate-rich diet most Americans consume today. But Ornish’s arguments against protein and fat are weak, simplistic and, in a way, irrelevant. A food or nutrient can be healthy without requiring that all other foods or nutrients be unhealthy. And categorizing entire nutrient groups as “good” or “bad” is facile. “It’s hard to move the science forward when there are so many stakeholders who say ‘this is the right diet and no other one could possibly be right,’” Bazzano says. Plus, discouraging the intake of entire macronutrient groups can backfire. When people dutifully cut down on fat in the 1980s and 1990s, they replaced much of it with high-sugar and high-calorie processed foods (think: Snackwell’s). If we start fearing protein, too, what will we fill our plates with instead? History tells us it’s not going to be spinach.

Meeting with Nate McLemore

Great catch up with Nate McLemore, MD of Columbia Pacific, a private equity vehicle buying/building hospitals and aged care facilities across China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia. Focusing on supporting burgeoning middle class populations with mid-priced offerings.

Interesting conversation around financial rationale for tobacco control. Will refer me on to colleagues at Castlight Health and Venrock VC.

IMG_20150424_140957847

NextGen Managed Care Priorities

 

http://www.ajmc.com/publications/issue/2015/2015-vol21-n4/Redefining-and-Reaffirming-Managed-Care-for-the-21st-Century

Redefining and Reaffirming Managed Care for the 21st Century

Published Online: April 15, 2015
David Blumenthal, MD, MPP; and David Squires, MA
T he term “managed care” is dangerously close to meaninglessness, and unlike pornography, as famously stated by United States Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, we may not even recognize it when we see it. Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound, Kaiser Permanente, and Geisinger are managed care organizations (MCOs). But so are Medicaid plans that—after taking a cut—pay the clinicians’ fee for service and call it a day. The MCO alphabet soup has come to include HMOs, PPOs, ACOs (MSSP and Pioneer), MA plans, PCMHs, IDNs, IPAs, and who knows what else. The very concept of managed care, with its somewhat paternalistic implication of organizational and/or clinician direction of care, seems to run crosswise of the emergent trend toward patient engagement in and control over the care experience.1

Still, few consumers want care that is completely unmanaged, and clinicians talk every day about the management of their patients’ problems: the management of chronic illness and acute illness, of diabetes and appendicitis, of schizophrenia and depression. The optimal management of care, and the creation of policy and organizational environments that facilitate it, continue to have deep intuitive resonance. It is time to retool the term managed care for the 21st century.

That process should start with a review of the major domains of service that can and should be managed for the benefit of patients, and by addressing the seeming—but not inherent—contradiction between care management and patient engagement and empowerment. These are the tasks we set out to do here.

Benefits Management

Certain types of MCOs serve as both insurer and provider. These organizations have to manage benefits as part of the managed care experience.

Clinical benefits management in this setting covers services whose value is supported by evidence. Based on insights from comparative effectiveness research, benefits management should exclude or discourage the use of services shown to be unsafe, ineffective, inferior to alternatives, or not cost-effective. Financial or nonfinancial incentives can also be developed to help shape patients’ choices, such as cost-sharing schemes to nudge patients toward highly effective services. The area of behavioral economics offers useful insights into how to manage proven benefits most effectively.

Clinical Management

Proper care management involves the application by clinicians and MCOs of a series of clinical strategies and techniques that are likely to result in better-coordinated, cost-effective, patient-responsive, and high-value services. These approaches include:

• proactive management of conditions between visits;

• good information systems with clinical decision support;

• predictive analytics to identify patients most likely to benefit from intervention;

• use of patient registries;

• care teams that include a variety of clinicians;

• strategies to address the nonmedical determinants of health;

• management of patient experience, informed by patient surveys; and

• an emphasis on shared decision making.

Clinical management techniques can be employed in any setting, but are likely to be easier and more successful when supported by an infrastructure that enables collaboration and information-sharing across providers, between patients and providers, and even among patients where appropriate. This infrastructure can be provided by external organizations or developed in-house, but will always need to be tailored to the local contexts.

Patient Engagement

Finally, it is important to broaden the concept of care management to include patients as managers of their care experience. For patients with health problems, self-management (or co-management with a clinician) is a powerful tool. For this reason, patient engagement is the third domain of managed care.

As with clinical management, patient engagement can occur anywhere, but is most likely to succeed when supported by an underlying infrastructure. One area where this infrastructure is rapidly developing is the growing market of consumer-directed health information technology products. Patient portals, for example, allow patients to remotely connect with their clinicians or access their medical records, and OpenNotes developers are experimenting with enabling patients to add to provider records. Important new opportunities are arising for patients to voluntarily augment their health information through apps, smart watches, biosensors, and other innovations coming down the tech pipeline.

Another strategy for empowering patients is to improve transparency—in other words, give them reliable information on quality and cost. Such information is currently mostly unavailable or shielded behind proprietary contracts. Having it available when patients need it and in a form that they can understand is necessary for them to make treatment choices and fully participate in shared decision making.

These and other methods for elevating patients’ agency and decision making are increasingly demanded by patients, and they should be part of the managed care concept for the 21st century.

Author Affiliation: The Commonwealth Fund (DB, DS), New York, NY.

Source of Funding: None.

Author Disclosures: The views presented here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The Commonwealth Fund or its directors, officers, or staff.

Author Information: Concept and design (DB, DS); drafting of the manuscript (DB, DS); critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content (DB, DS).

Address correspondence to: David Blumenthal, MD, MPP, The Commonwealth Fund, 1 E 75th St, New York, NY 10021. E-mail: db@cmwf.org.

REFERENCES

1. Binder L. Value-based purchasing versus consumerism: navigating the riptide. American Journal of Accountable Care. 2015;3(1):11-14.

– See more at: http://www.ajmc.com/publications/issue/2015/2015-vol21-n4/Redefining-and-Reaffirming-Managed-Care-for-the-21st-Century#sthash.701lslWB.dpuf

Mark Bertolini on Preventive Disruption

Excellent interview on a powerful vision for the reinvention of health insurance

http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00324?pg=all

Mark Bertolini’s Preventive Disruption

For Aetna’s CEO, the lauded move to raise employee wages is just part of a broader strategy to adapt to changes in healthcare.

Since January 12, 2015, Aetna chairman and CEO Mark Bertolini has been applauded by the likes of the New Yorker and the Wall Street Journal as an uncommonly forward-thinking and compassionate chief executive — or perhaps just a quixotic one. On that day, he announced a raise in Aetna’s minimum wage to US$16 per hour. For the 5,700 employees who stood to benefit, this meant an average pay increase of 11 percent; some saw an increase of 33 percent. It was arguably the most visible wage hike by a chief executive since 1914, when Henry Ford doubled his assembly line workers’ pay to $5 a day.

The Aetna pay hike was a multifaceted and strategic move — and one that stemmed from personal motivations as well. It also showed Bertolini to be a culturally astute leader with a real stake in improving the well-being of people who rely on Aetna, be they customers, employees, or long-term shareholders. He is also keenly aware of the changing nature of the healthcare industry in the U.S. and elsewhere. Even without the 2010 Affordable Care Act, health insurance companies would have been forced to revise their business models. Consumers have far more choices now than they had even a few years ago, and they approach them in a more conscious, more participative way.

Aetna, which as of 2014 was the third-largest health insurance company in the United States (after UnitedHealth and WellPoint), has been shifting its strategic focus, and its cultural orientation, for several decades. It has evolved from its role as a primarily financially oriented payor to a role as a healthcare solutions provider, helping medical organizations, insurance carriers, and consumers operate in harmony at lower cost. This has resulted in significant changes in the company’s prevalent attitudes and behaviors, with more change to come.

Bertolini is the third Aetna chief executive in a row who has moved the company in this direction. The first was Jack Rowe, chairman and CEO from 2000 through 2006, who turned Aetna around from a declining bureaucracy (with a hidebound culture known to employees as “Mother Aetna”) to a profitable enterprise. Rowe’s successor, Ron Williams, CEO and chairman from 2006 to 2010, restructured the company and paved the way for its return to growth at a time of dramatic industry change. Bertolini, a 58-year-old Detroit native who holds an MBA from Cornell University, joined Aetna as head of specialty products in 2003, and became president in 2007. In this post and as CEO, he has overseen Aetna’s business response to the Affordable Care Act, which helped attune him to Aetna’s complex cultural legacy as well as its potential for change.

Interestingly, the wage raise stemmed directly from Bertolini’s efforts to engage the Aetna company culture, through social media and personal interactions. It was also driven by a wish to be considered among the ethical leaders of American companies. Bertolini “explicitly linked the decision to the broader debate about inequality,” wroteNew Yorker columnist James Surowiecki. “He said that it was not ‘fair’ for employees of a [Fortune 100] company to be struggling to make ends meet.” Even Mother Aetna found it hard to undermine the emotional appeal of this rationale.

Bertolini is known for his no-nonsense, energetic style; his ability to mix formal and informal leadership; his advocacy of preventive medicine (after using yoga to recover from a debilitating ski accident in 2004, he introduced it to Aetna employees and ultimately to customers); and his penchant for speaking candidly and off the cuff. In this interview, conducted in two sessions in his Hartford, Conn., offices — the first in August 2014 and the second in January 2015, just after the wage announcement — he spells out the reasons for the pay and benefits change, the reaction it evoked in the company’s culture, and the connection to Aetna’s audacious strategic goal of becoming one of the few payor companies with a profitable and influential leadership position in the emerging healthcare industry.

S+B: How did you come to the wage hike decision?
BERTOLINI:
When I took this job as CEO, I had three objectives. One was to set Aetna on a course for the next 160 years. Our purpose should be to become a consumer company. The second was to make healthcare reform actually work. The third was to reestablish the credibility of corporate leadership in the eyes of the American public.

S+B: Not just for Aetna, but for every company?
BERTOLINI:
Yes. But at Aetna, this meant having a style of leadership that was approachable, real, and tangible. One of my goals was cultural impact. I told the PR team, “You cannot protect me; you must prepare me. So get ready. I’m going to go out there and speak truthfully, and talk about how to move forward.” That approach has served me well.

“I told the PR team, “You cannot protect me; you must prepare me.”

I became active on social media. We have an internal network called Aetna Connect, and I’m constantly talking to the employees on it. They also talk to each other. More and more often, I saw people online saying, “I can’t afford my benefits. My healthcare coverage is too expensive.”

I heard the same thing in site visits. When I visit an Aetna office, after the town meeting where I speak, I try to go to every cubicle in the building and shake everybody’s hand. I ask them what they’re up to and how they feel about it here. The same message came through.

At the same time, I could see that the economic recovery was unequal. People were suffering, but capital was cheap and corporations were hoarding cash and not investing. Business leaders were saying, “When the government gets its act together, we’ll move forward [with helping low-income wage earners].”

Then Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century [Belknap Press, 2014] came out. I know a number of well-known economists, and they all leaned the same way. There is pressure to fix this [income inequality] problem through the law of the land. That was a scary prospect: massive wealth redistribution through the federal government. We needed to prevent that.

Another influence was Clayton Christensen. He and I have been working together since 2011. Clay’s basic idea is that companies should husband scarce resources and put plentiful resources at risk. In our current environment, the scarcest resource is talent: human capital, not financial capital. Companies have cash sitting on balance sheets around the world. It makes more sense to spend the money on people than on acquisitions.

S+B: What did the business leaders within Aetna think?
BERTOLINI:
They were also starting to agitate about the income inequality problem. Some of them were worried about turnover, and being able to keep people motivated on the front line. After we had looked at a number of options to help our lowest-paid employees, I finally said, “How about we just pay them more?”

[Aetna chief of staff] Steve Kelmar is my sounding board. When he said the organization was ready to make this kind of change, we got a team together. First, we needed more data. I asked the HR team to build a profile: How much did the lowest-paid people at Aetna make? What did their healthcare coverage look like? What were their out-of-pocket costs? How hard was it for them to get by?

It took months to get this information. The organization really wasn’t ready to talk about it, but I kept pushing. Ultimately, we determined that a raise to $16 per hour would cost us $10.5 million per year. So I asked for data on the business impact. Our accepted figure for turnover costs was $27 million per year, but that was only voluntary turnover. I asked for total turnover costs. How many people leave involuntarily? How much does it cost to hire their replacements? How long does it take to train the new recruits? We looked at absenteeism, rework, productivity, dissatisfied employees, and our net promoter scores [a measure of survey respondents’ enthusiasm] in recruiting new employees. Incidentally, our industry’s general net promoter scores are below those of airlines and cable TV companies.

We figured out that our total turnover costs were $120 million per year. By that measure, $10.5 million looked like a low-risk investment. We [had] also recently hired a new head of human resources to partner with me on doing the right thing.

S+B: How many employees were affected by this policy?
BERTOLINI:
About 5,700 employees got wage increases to $16 per hour. Most of them were call center employees; some were single mothers or fathers, and others had children on Medicaid because they couldn’t afford our dependent coverage.

It wasn’t enough to just increase their wages; we also had to do something about their medical benefits. I talked to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where I’m on the board, and they pointed out that wage increases can affect benefits negatively [by reducing subsidies]. So we reduced the cost sharing on their benefits. This gave many of them our richest benefit plan at the price of our least rich plan — a zero premium cost for many of our frontline employees. Our objective was to raise the personal disposable income [PDI, or income after taxes, benefits, and other withholdings] of this population as high as we could without breaking the bank.

S+B: This wasn’t a cascading measure where you’d also raise other wages through the company.
BERTOLINI:
There was a huge gap between the people making $13 to $14 per hour and the rest of the company. People at the next higher salary level didn’t have the same issues.

When we made the change, some people saw a 33 percent increase in wages and a 45 percent increase in PDI. We also added another element to our social compact by offering certain employees enhanced medical benefits based on household income and their commitment to engage in certain wellness programs.

A Proud Moment

S+B: What was the announcement like?
BERTOLINI:
I went down to our largest call service center in Jacksonville, Fla., to announce it on January 12. We had to get a hotel ballroom to fit everyone in. Everybody was wondering why I was there. “He’s retiring.” “The company’s been sold.”

Very few people knew in advance. I had given the Wall Street Journal an exclusive interview the week before but embargoed the story until that evening. I wanted the employees to hear about it from me directly. We had also given our top 300 managers a heads-up the day before; we got them on the phone. They said things like “This is the proudest moment I’ve had in 42 years at the company.”

Then I made the announcement, and the place exploded. I had known people would be happy, but I wasn’t ready for the raw emotion. There were people crying. People saying, “Praise the Lord. My prayers have been answered.” The frontline managers were thrilled.

S+B: Were there negative reactions?
BERTOLINI:
Some employees said, “Wait a minute. I worked six years to get to $16 per hour and here you are handing it to them. What are you going to do for me?” It was disappointing to hear this.

S+B: How did you deal with cultural resistance?
BERTOLINI:
I kept control of [the initiative]. I brought the senior team into it because everyone would have to implement it, but I stayed closely involved myself.

S+B: What was the reaction from the shareholders?
BERTOLINI:
They’ve been largely supportive, with many going out of their way to ask about the move and voice their approval. Many of those who were concerned about the potential financial impact quickly became supportive when they came to understand the total magnitude of the enterprise impact, versus the benefits in employee satisfaction and retention.

Of course, all along I’ve been trying to move our shareholder base to long-term investors who will be more supportive of the changes we need to make to succeed in the new healthcare environment.

As Clayton Christensen points out, the shareholder formula in most companies is much too tightly connected to earnings per share. And you know what? Shareholders do not directly benefit from earnings per share increases. They get the difference in the value they bought at versus the value they sell at. What drives that stock price? It’s Wall Street’s belief about whether we have a sustainable product that our customers consistently buy. This is reflected in the P/E ratio.

Aetna’s earnings per share have grown at 15.5 percent for the last five years. But our total shareholder return grew 207 percent [during the same period]. What changed? The P/E. The magic question is: Are your business fundamentals sound enough that you can consistently deliver a product that customers will continue to buy over time? If people believe our business fundamentals are sustainable, it will move the stock price higher. This should be the way we think about it.

S+B: Not many company leaders have that kind of confidence.
BERTOLINI:
In the summer of 2009, we missed our plan by $450 million. I was president. I asked [CEO] Ron Williams, “Why haven’t you put a bullet in me?”

He said there were three reasons. “One, you’re running the place, and I can’t get rid of you. Two, you’ve hopped on the problem, and the plans look great. And three, nobody’s ever going to really be successful as a Fortune 100 CEO until he or she faces one of these crises and actually fixes it. So, finish it up and you’ll be the next CEO.”

You always have the opportunity to lead, no matter what your title. I never let the lack of a title get in my way; when I found a leadership vacuum, I’d jump in. When I talk to my direct reports and they say they don’t have the authority to do something, I say, “Here’s a secret: Do it anyway.” They’ll say, “Well, that’s not my job.” I say, “Yeah, it is.”

“I never let the lack of a title get in my way; when I found a leadership vacuum, I’d jump in.”

Culture and Behavior

S+B: You’re the third CEO in a row trying to create a culture of productivity and accountability at Aetna. How do you see those efforts?
BERTOLINI:
I don’t think you can create a culture. A culture emerges and evolves slowly over time. It’s a bit like a Petri dish. You hope the conditions are good for the right culture to grow. You try to get as much help as possible from the current cultural situation. Fortunately, it is seldom all good or all bad. At the end of the day, my biggest challenge has been to show the organization that it is necessary to take something apart while it’s successful, in order to make it even better. That is one of the theories of creative destruction.

S+B: What’s an example of the behaviors you’re trying to change?
BERTOLINI:
A lot of it has to do with improving accountability. This is a real issue when shifting from a command-and-control organization to an organization where people make important decisions at all levels. But you cannot change that all at once, so you work on a few key behaviors at a time.

One example is the way we manage meetings. In 2008, I added up the number of days I had to spend in major internal meetings. It was 180 out of about 200. We had a staff of 250 people who did nothing but put PowerPoints together for such meetings. So we set a goal of 70 percent less paper, 10 percent fewer meetings, and 50 percent fewer people attending. You should attend only meetings where you’re needed to make a decision, not to learn about [the topics].

“We set a goal of 70 percent less paper, 10 percent fewer meetings, and 50 percent fewer people attending.”

At first, people were upset: “Why am I no longer invited?”

“Well, you were grousing about having to sit in the back row doing emails. Go see a customer instead.”

We just had our monthly results meeting; there were 15 people in the room. Prior to this change, it would have been 80.

S+B: How do these changes affect customers?
BERTOLINI:
The healthcare industry is going through yet another major change. It will be a retail business before too long. By 2020, more than 75 million people will be purchasing insurance directly. That’s why Aetna became one of the largest players in Affordable Care Act exchanges — a move that surprised everybody. Those markets are blossoming for us, because people really want safety. They’re not saying, “I can’t wait to get insurance so I can run off to the doctor and spend somebody else’s money.” They’re solid working people trying to take care of their families. I want us to really care about those people.

When I was growing up, my dad worked as a pattern maker in the auto industry. Since the models changed every five years, he only worked six months every year. My mother was a nurse in a pediatrician’s office. That’s how we got our healthcare paid for. Our market is families like that.

The Affordable Care Act will commoditize this industry. That gives companies two options. They can put their thumb in their mouth, cut their costs, and hope they’re the last company standing. Or they can focus on the two or three parts of the business that have the most value, let the rest disappear, and repurpose their businesses accordingly.

We chose the second option — to focus on a critical few elements. So what could we leverage? Where do we have an emotional as well as a rational advantage? One was our reputation with healthcare providers, including hospitals. They think highly of us, and they all want to get in the insurance business, so why don’t we create a franchise kit for them? We built Healthagen [a line of health management, information technology, and related services for healthcare providers]. When we started working on it in 2005, we called it “Health Plan in a Box.”

We also built a clinical capacity exchange called WellMatch, which lets us resell excess capacity in the healthcare system — services like imaging, lab tests, office visits, and flu shots. And we’re making investments in new technologies, like iTriage [a health literacy and self-care app] and Medicity [which has a network of more than 1,000 hospitals, 270,000 healthcare professionals, and 20 regional and statewide health information exchanges connected to it]. Those two acquisitions were not on the market. We went and talked to them and bought them, and they’ve been very successful. But neither acquisition would have been made with a purely financial or data-driven rationale. We did them because we believed in them.

To make this work, we need to be willing to share our intellectual property and our technology. We can even let providers use it for free. If Healthagen technology helps people buy healthcare more intelligently, or gets them to the right doctor, or stops them from having to go to the emergency room, that helps our customers and it helps our business. Aetna’s medical costs in 2014 were over $40 billion. If we can reduce the annual rate of increase in medical costs by 50 basis points, that’s over $200 million of potential incremental underwriting margin.

We have begun to build accountable care organizations (ACOs) for providers. We are helping them evolve from a revenue-based model to margin-based insurance. We hired executive vice president Dijuana Lewis from Walmart, where she ran the healthcare vertical, to create a retail business for these organizations. The other two major parts of the enterprise are Healthagen, the provider-facing business, run by senior executive vice president Joe Zubretsky; and the core institutional business, run by president Karen Rohan, effective January 2015. From the combination of these three units, we are building, in essence, a fundamentally different value proposition in the marketplace; it is a population health model, in which providers get rewarded for keeping people well. Eventually, instead of primarily being a health insurance company, we’ll be like “Intel Inside,” providing the common infrastructure.

A Next-Generation Payor

S+B: What do you need to do to go down that road?
BERTOLINI:
First and foremost, we have to make provider relationships work over the long term. For employers to give up their ability to put health benefits directly in employees’ hands, they have to believe that the costs will be sustainable and affordable over time.

The best shot is to get providers engaged in population health. We will need to work with them in a variety of ways: fee-for-service systems, clinical efficiency, avoiding readmissions, and supply chain efficiency. Buying coalitions to lower the prices of drugs, stents, and wheelchairs. Giving them access to capital markets, debt and equity, to build their capacity to meet the needs of the full community. We want to make it easy for them to do the right thing for their customers.

I use Tesla as an analogy. Elon Musk has a car that runs purely on electricity, but it’s constrained by a lithium ion battery that represents 65 percent of the cost, and the car costs $85,000. So he builds a factory to reinvent the battery. If he can get to a $35,000 electric car and if free charging is everywhere, he can turn the energy and automotive industries upside down. Similarly, the healthcare provider system represents 85 percent of our cost. Unless we reinvent that system, we can’t begin to make it a retail proposition.

S+B: What does this change mean for the people of the company?
BERTOLINI:
There are three kinds of people at Aetna. There are people who want to operate under the old model, and they probably have five or 10 years left before that model is obsolete. But they are generating the capital that will fund the transition.

A second group is focused on the new stuff. Many of them work at Healthagen, whose offices are in Salt Lake City, Silicon Valley, and Denver. They largely came out of venture capital and private equity. When I go see them, it feels very natural to wear jeans and Birkenstocks or cowboy boots. It’s a completely different style of enterprise and cultural situation.

The third group is people who are involved in the old businesses, and who need help making the transition to the new world. The new model will need a lean operating infrastructure, so we will need to prepare for that. But we’ll also need new kinds of roles. For example, we’ll need to find roles for people in case management, marketing, and other fields where we haven’t needed many people before. Our budget in 2018 for consumer advertising might be 10 times what it is today.

S+B: Does everybody at the company understand the need for change?
BERTOLINI:
We’re talking about a lot of change. Some people have been with the company for a long time, and their attitude is: “What are you doing?”

At a leaders’ meeting, one manager said, “Mark, why are we making such significant change? The company has had record earnings, revenue, membership, and stock price.”

I was really surprised by that. I said, “Then all this talk about what’s going on in the marketplace, you believe all of that’s just fake?”

We had just done an employee engagement survey and the lowest scores were from people like those in the room, two levels below me. As you look at the survey results down through the organization, the scores rose again, and the frontline employees were among the most engaged. So I said, “45 percent of the people in this room really don’t want to be here. So why are you here? Why are you wasting your time and mine?”

The dialogue for the next hour was amazing. People talked about how hard it was to change, how they just wanted to do their jobs. At the end, I said, “I really appreciate everyone’s honesty. But I’m not going away. This is going to happen. Look to your left and right and decide. If you want to be here, we want you.”

S+B: How do you find and cultivate the people who are enthusiastic about change?
BERTOLINI:
I’m working now with the top 300 people, looking for a group of about 120 who can be informal leaders — people whose influence does not just depend on their position in the hierarchy. That will probably get honed down to a smaller group. Eventually I would like to have a kitchen cabinet of people who are authentic informal leaders drawn from all layers of the company.

I’m also continuing to use social media. I actually write my own tweets [he’s @mtbert]. My most widely recognized exchange on social media was with @PoopStrong [the Twitter handle and website of Arijit Guha, a graduate student at Arizona State University who was diagnosed with stage IV colon cancer, and began fundraising online when the costs of his care exceeded the benefits limit on his Aetna policy — Bertolini intervened directly in his case]. Sadly, Mr. Guha passed away, but we solved the benefits problem, and that was important to a lot of people, inside and outside the organization.

Most people think it’s hard to find the time to manage social media. But people talk to one another. I don’t even need to interject. I just watch it go on. I know I’m going to get attacked at times; people will say unfair things about me. But I think it’s much more efficient than email. I have 7,000 emails in my inbox, and I respond to virtually none of them. But with internal social media, we can create real teams. Eventually I’d like to replace email altogether with social media.

S+B: You have another project called “reinventing capitalism.” What’s involved in that?
BERTOLINI:
I am connected with a group of chief executives at Harvard’s Center for Higher Ambition Leadership. [Harvard professor emeritus] Michael Beer wrote a book about it. We started five years ago with five CEOs, and there are now 40 of us. We’re talking about how we can combine social and financial value — and what we need in the way of metrics to create better companies.

At our last meeting, in January 2015, I talked about this wage initiative. There are now 30 other CEOs who want to do something similar. Some of them have started, and it’s already clear they have the same hurdles to overcome. Even in companies where they talk about values and culture all the time, when asked what the lowest-paid group in their workforce looks like, [the staff will] tell you they don’t know and they don’t have the data. You have to learn to persevere with or without data. That’s how you have impact.

AUTHOR PROFILES:

  • Jon R. Katzenbach is a senior executive advisor with Strategy& based in New York, and co-leads the Katzenbach Center’s cultural initiatives.
  • Gretchen Anderson is a principal with Strategy& and a director of the Katzenbach Center.
  • Art Kleiner is editor-in-chief of strategy+business.

 

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The Life Insurance Model kick starts in the US

Photo

Michael Doughty, president of John Hancock Insurance, stretches in Boston. Hancock will offer a program that tracks policyholders’ medical data and offers discounts for healthful behavior. CreditCharlie Mahoney for The New York Times

Andrew Thomas’s life insurer knows exactly when he arrives at his local gym. The company is notified when he swipes his membership card, and 30 minutes later, it checks that he is still there, tracking his location through his smartphone.

The insurance company has a vested interest in keeping Mr. Thomas alive and well. In return for sharing his exercise habits, his cholesterol level and other medical information, Mr. Thomas, a 51-year-old medical publisher who lives in Johannesburg, earns points, which translate into premium savings and other perks. By staying in good shape, it is less likely that Discovery, his insurer, will have to pay out his life and disability policies.

“Every Saturday morning, just for playing golf, I get points,” said Mr. Thomas, who said he received about 9 percent back on his life insurance premiums for each of the last five years. “It is trying to make people live a health y lifestyle.”

Now John Hancock will become the first life insurance company to introduce a similar program for American consumers. The program, being announced Wednesday, will apply to both term and universal life insurance policies and is being operated through a partnership with Vitality, a global wellness company that already works with employers and health insurers in the United States.

The concept — which has been used in South Africa, where Vitality is based, Europe, Singapore and Australia — has the potential to transform the way life insurance is priced, at least for consumers who are willing to continually share their health data. But it also raises questions about how that information will be protected — and whether it could be used in ways that ultimately work against a consumer’s best interests.

People who sign up will receive a free Fitbit monitor, which can be set to automatically upload activity levels to the insurer. The most active customers may earn a discount of up to 15 percent on their premiums, in addition to Amazon gift cards, half-price stays at Hyatt hotels and other perks.

John Hancock, a division of Canadian insurer Manulife Financial, says it hopes the program will help reinvigorate life insurance sales, which have stagnated industrywide for decades. Just 44 percent of households in the United States own individual policies, according to Limra, a trade group, a 50-year low. Any product that reminds consumers of their mortality is hard to get excited about, but industry analysts said that financially strained households, changing demographics and increasingly complex and expensive products have led to the decline in sales.

“It has been a slow to no-growth industry for a long time,” said Michael Doughty, president of John Hancock Insurance, based in Boston. “It is crying out for innovation and for someone to try to reinvent the product to make it more relevant.”

The new program also upends the traditional approach to life insurance underwriting, which typically bases its pricing on a detailed but static snapshot of a person’s medical status. Now, John Hancock’s term and universal policies will be priced continuously, at least for consumers who choose the Vitality program.

John Hancock and Vitality, which is owned by Discovery, said the information would not be sold and would be shared only with entities that help with the program’s administration, though the aggregate data could be used to inform the development of new insurance products.

Nonetheless, some specialists expressed privacy concerns.

“All of a sudden, everything you do and everything you eat, depending on which bits of the information they collect, is sitting in someone’s database,” said Anna Slomovic, lead research scientist at the Cyber Security Policy andResearch Institute at George Washington University and a former chief privacy officer at Equifax and Revolution Health.

Of course, buying any life insurance policy requires customers to share detailed medical histories upfront. But consumers participating in the Vitality program must be comfortable providing enough information continuously to meet certain thresholds that will convert into worthwhile savings. That might include the frequency of workouts, reporting a physical exam or answering sensitive personal questions: During the last 30 days, how often did you feel so nervous that nothing could calm you down? Hopeless? Depressed?

“You do not have to send us any data you are not comfortable with,” Mr. Doughty said. “The trade-off is you won’t get points for that.”

Participants need to amass 3,500 points to achieve silver status, 7,000 to reach gold and 10,000 for platinum. Nonsmokers automatically earn 1,000 points, and people with in-range cholesterol, glucose and blood pressurewill receive 1,000 points for each. A “verified” standard workout three times a week, or an advanced workout twice a week, provides another 3,120 points over the course of a year. Flu shots, 400 points. The clock is reset each year, though 10 percent of points may carry over.

All customers participating in the program will start by paying a premium priced at the gold level. That is a discount of about 9 percent for a 45-year-old man who bought a $500,000 term insurance policy that covered a 20-year period: He would pay $750 annually, compared with the $825 it would cost outside of the Vitality program.

So what if he does everything right, but breaks his leg? Or worse, gets a serious disease like cancer? While those conditions would not directly affect his rate, if he could not maintain gold status for any reason, he could see premium increases of 1.1 to 1.6 percent each year. But if he reached platinum status, his premiums would fall by about 0.30 percent each year.

The program may attract healthier people who have already engaged in these activities on their own. The strategy also tries to tap into the way humans are naturally wired: There is generally no immediate tangible benefit to life insurance, but this program is structured to try to change that.

“People respond far more to immediate gratification than delayed gratification,” said Dr. Kevin Volpp, director of the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the Leonard Davis Institute. (He has performed research sponsored by Vitality.)

The number of points assigned to a particular activity is determined by how it will influence a person’s longevity, based on Vitality’s internal findings — and its level of difficulty. “Stopping smoking is more valuable than one session of activity,” explained Alan Pollard, chief executive of Vitality. “If something is a complex behavioral change, it will attract more points.”

Vitality’s research has found that Americans are generally five years older than their actual age, after taking into account various health and wellness factors. All participating policyholders will be given a “Vitality age,” which will help the program set personal guideposts.

“The people who have the time to devote to jumping through all the hoops are likely to be better off than average, and those healthy enough to do wellness activities may be unrepresentative of the chronically ill,” saidFrank Pasquale, a professor at University of Maryland Carey School of Law. “I believe that is one reason why there is empirical research severely questioning the value of wellness programs.”

John Hancock, which operates in all 50 states, said the universal life program had been approved by insurance regulators in 30 states, while the term program is available in 20 states; more states are expected to be announced throughout the year. It said no regulators had declined to approve it yet.

“It changes the paradigm of life insurance,” Dr. Volpp said. “In some sense, it tries to change your insurance into less of a passive vehicle that pays the bills if something happens, into a more active vehicle to get people to lower their risk.”

Meeting with Amy Costello and Jo Porter at University of New Hampshire

Great meeting with Amy Costello and Jo Porter.

This team have led the charge on freeing data to improve trasparency and accountability in the US health system.

Academic but with a strong, pragmatic approach.

Main obstacle to progress has been clinician objection and payer ambivalence/resistance despite mandates to release data.

From: Porter, Josephine [mailto:jo.porter@unh.edu]
Sent: Saturday, 18 April 2015 8:31 PM
To: Paul Nicolarakis; Costello, Amy
Subject: RE: thank you

Hi Paul,

It was great to meet you, and spend time discussing all of the ways we all can make a difference with data…around the globe!

Here is the link to the accountable care site: www.nhaccountablecare.org. Click “Access Public Reports”. It’s all descriptive stuff, but it’s really where the health systems are right now.

The APCD Development Manual can be found here: http://apcdcouncil.org/all-payer-claims-database-development-manual.

And here is the article that describes the impact of the NH HealthCost (www.nhhealthcost.org) site and how the transparency impacted the Exeter Hospital-Anthem negotiations: http://www.chcf.org/~/media/MEDIA%20LIBRARY%20Files/PDF/M/PDF%20MovingMarketsNewHampshire.pdf

Also – do you know the work of Dr. Neal Shah (http://www.costsofcare.org/)? He has a vision to include costs into the clinical decision-making at the point of care. He is in Boston, and I would be happy to provide an introduction, if you think it would be helpful.

Thanks for making the trip to NH. Let’s chat again soon!

Jo

From: Paul Nicolarakis [mailto:paul.nicolarakis@loricahealth.com]
Sent: Friday, April 17, 2015 10:08 PM
To: Costello, Amy; Porter, Josephine
Subject: thank you

Dear Amy and Jo,

Thanks so much for your time, hospitality and apparel today. It was terrific to hear about your pioneering and hard fought journey to make a real difference with health data…. truly inspiring stuff, albeit with plenty more fights to come. Am looking forward to staying in touch and comparing notes as we seek to bring on the global healthcare reckoning.

Cheers, Paul

 

P.S. Jo – can you send through that accountablecare.org link, and the state development manual? The NPR story on cost of care impacts was excellent.

P.P.S .You can find out more about Australia’s Classification of Hospital Acquired Diagnoses system here.

P.P.P.S. I listened to the NPR story Jo mentioned, and also heard these two terrific Freankonomics episodes also about general healthcare mayhem on the drive back to Boston – suspect you may also enjoy them too

How Do We Know What Really Works in Healthcare?

How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution?

Harvard Business School/Harvard Medical School – Healthcare Innovation

 

Peter Orzack (citi) on the economics and financing of health. Gave interesting insights into potential unintended consequences of transparency (aside from reduced variation), could get collusion.

Drugs and devices require RCT level evidence to be enacted, but health financing policy can be done from the hip.

Risk adjustment will be improved by clinical (EMR) level data. At present, claims-based risk adjustment can predict only 10% of future spending whereas clinical data + SES data can predict 40%

WP_20150415_012

Note “Micro Kale” on the menu:WP_20150415_013

Mark T. Bertolini, CEO of Aetna, presenting one of the most powerful speeches on health care reform and renewal of corporate america I’ve every heard.

WP_20150415_014

WP_20150415_015Also had an extended conversation over dinner with Ceci Connolly (MD, PWC Health) spoke with Halle Tecco (CEO, Rock Health) and Luc Sirois (Hacking Health, coming to HISA’s HIC 2015), Dr Paul Tang (Paolo Alto Medical Foundation) and Kaiser Permanente (polypill work).

 

 

 

 

Meeting: Dr Shantanu Agarwal, CMS

Met with Dr Shantanu Agarwal, Deputy Administrator and Director, Center for Program Integrity

Excellent discussion comparing notes on system integrity in Australia and US.

CMS overall pays $1 trillion in program payments annually.

Point estimate is that 12% are improper payments – $48-52B per year.

The observation was made that FFS schedules like MBS were more than administrative tools, but effectively were clinical guidelines given the powerful incentives that they provide for particular treatments.

Analytic methods have been set and maturing for the last 5 years.

Most challenging element is how to close loop on anomalous behaviour:

  • Start with on-boarding/educating newly enrolled clinicians (prevention) using videos, literature, data, feedback.
  • Engagement with providers needs to be longitudinal, long term, personal, especially around low value care.
  • You need a credible (peer matched) messenger and data needs to be properly presented and matched.

This Health Affairs article describes a typical journey for a system Shantanu used to work for – ChenMed in Miami.

Discussed:

  • Fraud > Abuse > Waste > Error continuum
  • The agile human adversary
  • Chasing value slide
  • Gamma scoring methodologies
  • Choosing wisely > disinvestment
  • Surgeon dashboard
  • Surgeon selector

Shantanu mentioned that http://www.healthcostinstitute.org/ were seeking to build out similar statistical presentations to our own, but had so far only developed cost-oriented metrix with no dimension for quality/experience etc.

Other references for the meeting:

Reducing Medicare and Medicaid Fraud and Abuse – interview

Statement to Committee on Energy and Commerce
Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations
United States House of Representatives  on Medicare Program Integrity: Screening Out Errors, Fraud and Abuse

Powerpoint: 764496_slide_CMS_DrShantanuAgrawal

 

cms